• Acronyms used
  • Par: Parameter
  • Sc: Scenario
  • P: Probability

1- Defining the event

• What is the scenario that you want to assess?

  • Main Scenario:

• Is the scenario precisely defined, in terms of metrics, timeline, terms definition?
• What is the timeline associated to the scenario?
• How do you define each terms of the question?

• What metrics are associated to this scenario?

2- Breaking the big question

• What should be true to answer positively to the question?

2.1- Probability tree

• Are all your smaller events mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive ?
• Is there some branches of the probability tree that you can exclude?

3- Influencing parameters

• What are the parameters that could potentially influence the event to happen? What is the weight of each parameters? How does the parameter affect the scenarios?

  • Par1

  • Par2

  • Par3

  • Par4

  • Par5

  • Par6

  • Par7

  • Par8

4- Study the precedence

• Is there similar situation that happened in the past?
• What was the result of those situations?
• How similar were those situations to the main scenario?
• What are the base rates associated to those events ?

5- Assign probability

• Based on the influencing parameters you identified and the different scenario, assign probabilities to each of the scenario.
• Instead of probability values could you assign a probability distribution to your events?
  • Main Scenario
    • P: %
  • Sc1
    • P: %
  • Sc2
    • P: %
  • Sc3
    • P: %
  • Sc4
    • P: %
  • Sc5
    • P: %

6- Metathinking

6.1- Debiasing

• [[AOT-03-Cognitive Bias]]
• Are you favouriting a personal point of view?

6.2- MetaProbability

• How confident are you about your knowledge of the subject?

7- Monitoring

• What information should you monitor to see if the situation is evolving?
  • What changes would make the main scenario more likely to happen?
  • What changes would make the main scenario less likely to happen?