1- Removing Fragility

1.1- Identifying sources of fragility

• Are there any non-linearities present in the system or process I am examining?
• How do different parameters that influence the outcome affect the system or process?
  • Is there an increase in harm when these parameters are changed?
  • Are the effects linear or non-linear?
• What is the worst case scenario for this system or process?
• Will I be harmed by the worst case scenario?
• What makes me vulnerable in this context?
• Is what makes me vulnerable under my control?
• Is the potential harm mainly emotional or is there a financial or practical impact as well?
• Has my solution or approach been stress tested by time?
  • Rationale: Time is a differentiator of what is fragile and what is antifragile.
• Is this system or process built on real stability or manufactured stability?
  • Rationale: Manufactured stability is often less stable than we think.
• Is my reasoning for this solution or approach based on a theory or explanation?
  • Rationale: Explanations can change over time, so it is important to be cautious when relying on theory.
• How sophisticated is my solution or approach?
  • Rationale: Increasing sophistication can make things more complex and thus more vulnerable to collapse.

1.2- Detecting risk

• What are the risks that I have identified in this system or process?
• Are there any lethal risks or risks with consequences that I cannot bear?
• Am I assessing risk based on past data?
  • Rationale: It is important to understand that risk is in the future, not in the past.

1.2.1- Probabilities

• Am I building my plan or decision on probabilities?
• How confident am I in my probabilities?
  • Rationale: A system built on illusions of understanding probability is likely to collapse.

1.3- Detecting fragility in people

• Does the person learn from their mistakes?
  • Rationale: Someone who has made plenty of errors - though never the same error more than once - is more reliable than someone who has never made any.

2- Controlling Fragility

2.1- Forecasting errors

• How likely are forecasting errors to occur in this system or process?
• What impact would a forecasting error have on the system or process?
• How can I reduce the impact of a forecasting error?

2.2- Vulnerabilities

• What vulnerabilities have I identified in this system or process?
• How can I reduce or eliminate these vulnerabilities?

2.3- Manufactured stability

• Is this system or process built on real stability or manufactured stability?
  • Rationale: Manufactured stability is often less stable than we think.
• How can I ensure that the stability of this system or process is real, rather than manufactured?

2.4- Reliance on theory

• Is my reasoning for this solution or approach based on a theory or explanation?
  • Rationale: Explanations can change over time, so it is important to be cautious when relying on theory.
• How can I ensure that my reasoning is not overly reliant on theory?

2.5- Sophistication

• How sophisticated is my solution or approach?
  • Rationale: Increasing sophistication can make things more complex and thus more vulnerable to collapse.
• How can I ensure that my solution or approach is not overly sophisticated and thus vulnerable to collapse?

3- Building Robustness

3.1- Wise choices

• What are the potential consequences of each choice I am considering?
• How well do I understand the context and conditions under which this choice will be made?
• Are there any biases or assumptions that I need to be aware of in my decision-making process?
• Is this choice aligned with my long-term goals and values?

3.2- Diversity of thought and experience

• How diverse is the team or group making this decision?
• Are there different perspectives or experiences being represented in the decision-making process?
• How can we incorporate more diverse perspectives into our decision-making process?

3.3- Continuous learning

• How are we staying current on relevant information and developments?
• How are we incorporating new learnings into our decision-making process?
• What resources or practices can we put in place to support continuous learning?

3.4- Experimentation and testing

• How are we testing different ideas or approaches?
• What metrics are we using to evaluate the effectiveness of different options?
• How can we create a culture of experimentation and testing within our team or organization?

3.5- Systems thinking

• How are different parts of the system interacting with each other?
• How might small changes in one area have cascading effects on other parts of the system?
• What tools or frameworks can we use to better understand complex system dynamics?

4- Redundancy

4.1- Multiple pathways or backup plans

• What are the key goals or objectives that I am trying to achieve?
• What are the different ways that I could achieve these goals or objectives?
• What are the costs and benefits of each option?
• How can I create multiple backup plans to ensure that I have flexibility in the face of unexpected challenges?

4.2- Decentralization

• How centralized or decentralized is my current personal or professional system?
• What are the risks and benefits of centralization or decentralization for me?
• How can I leverage decentralization in my personal or professional life to create more redundancy and resilience?

4.3- Redundancy in key systems and processes

• What are the key systems and processes that are critical to my personal or professional life?
• What are the potential points of failure within these systems and processes?
• How can I create redundancy in these key systems and processes to ensure that I can continue to function even in the face of unexpected challenges?

4.4- Spare capacity

• How much spare capacity do I have within my personal or professional systems and processes?
• What are the costs and benefits of having more or less spare capacity?
• How can I optimize my spare capacity to ensure that I have flexibility in the face of unexpected challenges?

5- Building Antifragility

5.1- Leveraging the fragility of others

• How does the fragility of others create opportunities for me?
• What are the potential risks and downsides of leveraging the fragility of others?
• How can I create a hierarchy where the fragility of the lower part benefits the higher part?

5.2- Seeking out upside risk

• What are the potential upside risks that I am currently exposed to?
• How can I increase my exposure to these upside risks?
• What are the potential risks and downsides of seeking out more upside risk?

5.3- Optionality

• What are the different options that I currently have available to me?
• How compatible are these options with each other?
• What are the costs and benefits associated with each option?
• How can I create more options for myself?

5.4- Creating stressors

• Am I currently exposed to stressors that could potentially benefit me?
• What types of stressors could benefit me?
• What types of stressors could make me less prone to fall prey to certain traps?
• How can I create or expose myself to these stressors in a controlled and safe way?

5.5- Time as an ally

5.5.1- Feedback

• How can I get feedback more rapidly in order to make better decisions?
• How can I use feedback to improve my personal or professional systems and processes?

5.5.2- Reactiveness

• How quickly can I react to bad things happening?